Global Warming?

Yes, the earth is apparently getting warmer. No one is going to question that fact; it's been getting warmer since the last ice age (duh.) The real debate is over what is causing it. Is it industry? Or something bigger than us? NASA rana story recently about the increased amount of solar activity over the last several decades. If you aren't familiar with solar cycles, our sun goes through cycles of activity and inactivity every 11 to 14 years. The years of activity are called the solar maximum and those of inactivity are called the solar minimum. Last week the sun began signalling that it was ready to head into a period of inactivity. This chart from NASA shows the intensity of solar activity over the last several hundred years:



You'll notice from this graph of solar activity that there has been markedly greater solar activity since 1750 than before. There is a theory of global warming circulating that points the finger at the sun for changes in Earth temperatures rather than at factories. The "green" people don't like that theory because there isn't anything they can do about the sun. Here is a graph of global temperatures since 1840 or so from a web site on global warming:



You'll notice that spikes and troughs in global temperature roughly follow those of solar activity. Rises in global temperature are usually preceeded by increased solar activity by 10 or so years. Periods of time after lower solar activity show lower temperatures on earth. So, one would have to suppose (all things being equal) that the sun does play some role in the temperature changes on Earth. We'll have to wait for a period of extended minimal activity to really guage the impact. Global weather records haven't been kept diligently until the 1800s, so our impression of global temperature rise is fuzzy at best beyond the last two centuries. Sun spots are a little easier to track since you just look at the sun and count them (which you should never do without the right equipment.) In any case we've definitely had more solar activity recently. As we head into, at least, 4 years of low solar activity we might see global temperatures dip a little... of course the greenhouse gas people will simply attribute the decrease to better emissions management...

Ultimately there are two kinds of "burying your head in the sand." You can pretend that everything is just fine and ignore a pending problem, or you can be so sure of a solution to a problem that you choose to ignore empiricle problems with a solution to a problem. The environmentalist, global warming jihad has to at least acknowledge there is something to the solar theory of global warming. Pretending that it's junk science, or being in denial isn't helpful to anyone. The implication may be that reducing greenhouse-gas emissions isn't going to do squat for the rising temperatures.

Check out National Geographic's article on the sun from July 2004:Stormy Star